Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 0.306211 0.353782 0.405524 0.465882 0.534248 0.609175 0.697399
2025-06-29 0.226528 0.286078 0.356053 0.443969 0.551069 0.676868 0.835354
2025-07-06 0.169605 0.233246 0.313716 0.422088 0.563255 0.739827 0.976169
2025-07-13 0.137218 0.204672 0.296076 0.427395 0.609307 0.850180 1.190552
2025-07-20 0.108439 0.175375 0.272494 0.421096 0.639488 0.944735 1.398605
2025-07-27 0.088844 0.155373 0.258431 0.425800 0.685737 1.067644 1.662540
2025-08-03 0.073756 0.139203 0.247203 0.432857 0.736600 1.204131 1.964391
2025-08-10 0.057235 0.116952 0.222145 0.413768 0.744173 1.276913 2.180826
2025-08-17 0.043587 0.096542 0.196150 0.388357 0.737290 1.325861 2.366223
2025-08-24 0.034951 0.083582 0.180892 0.379009 0.756140 1.418976 2.634783
2025-08-31 0.028123 0.072564 0.167055 0.369711 0.773469 1.511430 2.913199
2025-09-07 0.024239 0.067031 0.163146 0.379108 0.827088 1.674504 3.334017
2025-09-14 0.018869 0.056644 0.147133 0.361744 0.828056 1.745388 3.604907
2025-09-21 0.015098 0.049105 0.135791 0.352272 0.843726 1.846660 3.946052
2025-09-28 0.011976 0.042264 0.124462 0.340572 0.852873 1.936589 4.277014
2025-10-05 0.010361 0.039275 0.122126 0.349792 0.909715 2.130642 4.837373
2025-10-12 0.008611 0.035221 0.115966 0.348318 0.941955 2.277374 5.318264
2025-10-19 0.007427 0.032623 0.113248 0.355293 0.995527 2.476949 5.932545
2025-10-26 0.006461 0.030431 0.111186 0.363693 1.054066 2.694748 6.609740
2025-11-02 0.005125 0.026218 0.101711 0.349206 1.052185 2.774736 6.992846
2025-11-09 0.003944 0.022040 0.091058 0.328763 1.031070 2.806822 7.271484
2025-11-16 0.003221 0.019496 0.085226 0.321755 1.045281 2.925634 7.763203
2025-11-23 0.002627 0.017241 0.079723 0.314529 1.057677 3.041437 8.260107